HKTDC boosts its export growth forecast for 2025
The city’s traders are feeling more upbeat in the near term.
The Hong Kong Trade Development Council (HKTDC) has lifted its 2025 export growth forecast to 7-9%, up from an earlier estimate of 3%. The move reflects rising optimism among the city’s traders as global trade tensions slightly softened.
The most recent HKTDC Export Confidence Index, unveiled yesterday, show two key measures climbing to new highs since the survey’s debut in Q1 last year. The Current Performance Index – a measure of how exporters viewed their business performance in the surveyed quarter – increased to 53.3 in Q3, up from 49.6 in Q2.
Meanwhile, the Expectation Index – a measure of how exporters see their likely prospects in the coming quarter – rose to 54.3, up from 49.0.
The overall boost in confidence was supported by a rally in sales and new orders. Exporters continue to bring shipments forward, to minimise risks in an uncertain trading environment. Trade values also enjoyed a lift, thanks to increased unit prices stemming from higher US tariffs.
Over the first seven months of 2025, the value of Hong Kong’s exports rose 12.7% year-on-year, according to the city’s Census and Statistics Department.
An unclear future
Ongoing uncertainty still clouds the longer-term picture, however.
Hong Kong’s better-than-expected export performance was largely driven by front-loading trade, pointed out Irina Fan, Director of HKTDC Research.
The benefits of this strategy are likely to recede over the coming months. “We should be duly cautious and refrain from being overly optimistic,” Ms. Fan warned.
“The possibility of future tariff hikes and further supply chain risks within the already increasingly fragmented global trading arena remains very real, and could well translate into a sharp deceleration in trade in 2026.”
For now, Hong Kong’s traders continue to view most markets, apart from the US, positively. By sector, traders are largely upbeat about exports for timepieces, electronics, clothing and jewellery in the short term.
Views on exports in toys and equipment/materials are more negative, however. A full summary of HKTDC Research’s latest Export Confidence Index, based on data collected between 28 July and 15 August, can be read here.
The HKTDC Export Confidence Index is a quarterly survey of more than 500 Hong Kong traders operating in six major sectors. Any index reading above 50 indicates an upward trend and an optimistic outlook. Any index reading below 50 indicates a downward trend and a pessimistic outlook.
